Test Campaign Schedule Risk Model
Test Stand Telemetry · Live Model v 3.1 · Calibrated against 11 active test programs
EPSILON3 / TEST OPERATIONS VERTICAL
TC-RM
04 / 26 Test Campaign
Risk Model
Schedule Risk Forecast — Test Operations

How many days does your test campaign actually have left?

For programs running concurrent test campaigns at multiple sites, schedule risk doesn't compound from the things you're tracking. It compounds from the deviations that never made it into a system of record. Plug in your campaign profile. The model returns the schedule days at risk, the anomaly reconstruction burden your team is carrying, and the audit traceability gap — benchmarked against the test-ops programs already running on Epsilon3. The same diagnostic we walk through on a discovery call.

Inputs · Campaign Configuration Custom Configuration
Active Test Campaigns
3
Concurrent test programs (component, engine, stage, integrated vehicle).
1358
Concurrent Sites
3
Test stands, integration facilities, and launch sites under shared procedures.
1246
Daily Procedure Volume
85 / day
Procedure executions across all sites during active campaign tempo.
10100200300
Test Operations Team
175 FTE
Engineers and technicians authoring, executing, or reviewing test procedures.
20200400600
Reference
Profiles ▸
Output · Schedule & Documentation Risk Forecast UPDATED --:--:--
Schedule Days at Risk
Per quarter · from undocumented deviations
14 days
Q-trace
Material exposure. Anomaly investigations and reconstruction work are blocking critical-path schedule.
Anomaly Reconstruction Burden
Engineering hours per quarter · post-test
2,400 hr
load
~5.2 FTE reconstructing what happened from notes, photos, and Slack threads — engineering capacity not building anything.
Audit Traceability Gap
Procedure executions/qtr without complete as-run trace
1,150 events
gap
FAA AST & customer audit exposure. Manual systems lose chain-of-custody beyond ~5,000 events / qtr.

Where the campaign sits in the test-ops peer set

E3 customer benchmark · n=11
Component
1 campaign · 1 site
Multi-Site
3–4 campaigns · 2–3 sites
Production Test
5+ campaigns · 4+ sites
Your program

Active Deviation Vectors

5 vectors active
Specific schedule-risk drivers the model surfaces from your inputs · ranked by impact
ID
Deviation Vector
Schedule Cost
Severity
Programs at this profile lose 14 days per quarter to anomaly reconstruction and undocumented deviations. The discovery call starts with which of those days are already gone this quarter. 15-minute call · No deck · We come prepared with your model output

Methodology

Schedule-day exposure is derived from the deviation rate observed across active test campaigns (industry-typical 2.5–4% of executions yield deviations requiring documented disposition), the average reconstruction time per deviation (4–18 hours), and the cross-site coordination penalty that compounds at sites^1.3.

Calibration

Benchmark band derived from Epsilon3 customer programs spanning component-level test campaigns through multi-stage integrated vehicle test. Anomaly-rate floor and reconstruction-time priors aligned with FAA AST procedural noncompliance categories and NASA test-readiness review precedent.

Disclaimer

Numbers are directional. Full diagnostic uses your actual procedure inventory, site map, and last quarter's deviation log — performed live during a discovery call. Any executive at a launch program with active test campaigns will recognize the math.